ACA Midterm Election Watch: Will the Senate Flip? Election Outlook Coming to ACA’s Fall Forum

October 26, 2022 6:00 pm
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The 2022 midterm elections are just over two weeks away. Here are the races and issues ACA is tracking, plus a preview of our election outlook presentation at the 2022 Fall Forum in Chicago.

With nearly 500 election races coming up in just a few weeks, including 34 seats in the U.S. Senate and the entire U.S. House of Representatives—435 seats—2022 could mean another shift in party control in both chambers.

Here are a few items ACA International is tracking, plus a preview of our election outlook session at the 2022 Fall Forum.

Democrats have a narrow 221-213 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, meaning just eight seats separate them from the Republicans.

Republicans only need to flip five seats to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Considering not a single Republican incumbent lost in the 2020 election, and they were able to pick up 13 seats despite losing at the top of the ticket, Republicans are well poised to make that happen.

Redistricting and new census counts have also been major influences leading up to the Nov. 8 election.

And more than 40 House members have announced their retirement this year, including 29 Democrats and 13 Republicans.

So, how does this affect the accounts receivable management (ARM) industry, and what can you do?

The Biden administration is currently enjoying a Democratic trifecta—the presidency, the House and the Senate, and President Joe Biden has been able to move a good deal of his policy priorities with minimal input from Republicans.

Should either, or both, of the chambers change control, Biden and his administration would be more limited in what they can do.

Additionally, if either or both chambers flip, passing legislation will become difficult, if not impossible, without significant buy-in from Republicans, and if neither chamber flips, you can expect to see similar bills and priorities as you saw this Congress.

Media reports show the election and control between the Republicans and Democrats could come down to the wire.

Debate season is ending, and The Hill reports there are seven seats most likely to change party control after the election.

In Pennsylvania, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, was expected to pick up a seat for the party, but Mehmet Oz’s campaign is gaining steam with support of outside GOP groups, according to the article.

The winner of the race between first-term Democrat U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who serves on the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, which covers industry issues, and former state attorney general Adam Lexalt in Nevada, appears to be one that would influence the Senate’s majority in Congress.

Georgia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio and North Carolina congressional races are also ones to watch, according to The Hill.

Polls from The New York Times-Siena College and Harvard-Harris found Republicans have an advantage, The Hill reports.

A Fox News poll from earlier this month shows Democrats have an advantage among registered voters, according to the article.

On the Issues

An update provided by Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck shows Democrat ads focus on abortion while Republicans have targeted messaging on the economy, criticism of President Biden, and the backing of former President Donald Trump.

A University of Virginia (UVA) Center for Politics poll similarly found neither party has focused their messaging on the Biden administration’s student loan relief plan.

Inflation remains a top issue at the polls, and Republicans are finding an advantage on their messaging there, according to The Hill.

Coming to ACA’s Fall Forum: A Bipartisan Election Outlook with Washington Insiders

Join Washington insiders Nadeam Elshami and Brian Wild as they provide bipartisan and bicameral-based predictions about the election, which falls less than one week after ACA’s Fall Forum, Nov. 2-4 at the Radisson Blu Chicago.

Elshami, who served for 25 years in Congress, departing as chief of staff to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Wild, who worked in the White House in the Bush administration and as chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., as well as in many other roles as a congressional staffer, will base their election predictions on their unique insights from both sides of the aisle and experiences with campaigns.

Elshami and Wild are now policy directors at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck in Washington, D.C.

This discussion is a must-see for everyone interested in what the future political environment holds, which will have major implications for the ARM industry.

Heading into the 2022 midterms, ACA and ACPAC, ACA’s political action committee, have been focused on getting out the vote among members.

The National Conference of State Legislatures has a comprehensive list of election dates for the coming year. Mark your state’s date on your calendar and research your congressional candidates, which can be found on Ballotpedia.

Elections can make a difference for our industry’s future. To learn more about how ACA and ACPAC are fighting to make sure elections are making a difference at the federal level, visit www.acainternational.org/advocacy/political-action.

For more on the midterm elections, read the Midterm Election Primer in the March/April issue of Collector magazine.

If you have executive leadership updates or other member news to share with ACA, contact our communications department at comm@acainternational.org. View our publications page for more information and our news submission guidelines here.

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