Auto loan delinquency rates increased more slowly in Q1

Here’s what the latest data shows, based on the NY Fed’s Q1 2026 Household Debt and Credit Report:

Slowing Flow Into Delinquency

The key metric NY Fed researchers flagged is the “flow rate” — the share of auto accounts newly transitioning into delinquency each quarter:

• Early delinquency (30+ days): 7.72% in Q1 2026, down from 7.99% in Q1 2025

• Serious delinquency (90+ days): 2.97% in Q1 2026, essentially flat from 2.94% a year ago

Researchers described this as “stabilization across credit cards and auto” in terms of flow into delinquency — a relatively positive signal after years of deterioration.

Overall Delinquency Balances Still Elevated

While the flow is slowing, the stock of delinquent balances remains high. Auto loan serious delinquency sits at 2.97% of balances, well above pre-pandemic norms. The Philadelphia Fed’s April 2026 analysis adds important nuance: elevated headline delinquency rates are partly a function of slower exit from delinquency (longer persistence before charge-off or repossession), not just a growing pool of newly distressed borrowers.

Demographic Stress Points

Borrowers aged 18–29 continue to post the highest serious delinquency rates across auto, credit card, and student loans. Subprime auto specifically has been running near 6–7% delinquency — historically elevated — though prime borrowers remain near historic lows.

Broader Context

Auto loan originations reached $182 billion in Q1, and overall household debt delinquency held at 4.8% of balances outstanding — roughly flat from Q4 2025. The slowing pace of deterioration is being read cautiously as a stabilization signal, though researchers are not yet calling it a reversal.