Bank of America CEO drops unexpected view on economy

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan’s “unexpected” view is that the U.S. economy looks fundamentally solid going into 2026, despite all the worry about tariffs, recession risks, and the Federal Reserve.​

What Moynihan is saying

• He argues the tariff shock of 2025 is stabilizing, with rates “clustering” rather than spiraling higher, and that businesses will adapt by repricing and adjusting supply chains.​

• He thinks markets have over‑fixated on tariffs and Fed moves, and that the real economic swing factor now is the labor market, not trade policy.​

Why his view is “unexpected”

• Much commentary has focused on tariffs and recession risk as the main threats, but Moynihan is “not buying into the panic” and instead sees a manageable environment as companies digest higher but more stable tariff levels.​

• He pushes back on the idea that small Fed rate changes or tariff headlines alone will derail growth, saying the U.S. economy is much larger than the Fed and that sentiment has gotten “out of whack” by obsessing over rates.​

Data he points to

• Major equity indexes are up strongly in 2025: as of December 26, the Nasdaq is up about 22%, the S&P 500 about 18%, and the Dow about 15%, which he cites as evidence that markets have already looked through the worst of the tariff shock.​

• He highlights steady consumer spending and roughly 3% wage growth with unemployment in the mid‑4% range, arguing consumers remain engaged and are keeping the economy growing around a projected 2.4% in 2026 if that spending continues.​

What he sees as the real risk

• Moynihan says the biggest near‑term risk is if consumers pull back on spending; right now, he does not see that in Bank of America’s transaction data, even though sentiment feels weak.​

• He also flags labor availability and geopolitical shocks (such as wars) as more important potential disruptions than incremental tariff or rate moves, especially for small and midsize businesses planning hiring and investment.​