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The Q1 2026 full-quarter data from Epiq/ABI hasn’t yet been published (that report would typically drop in early April), but the monthly data available paints a clear picture that’s consistent with — and in some months well exceeds — a 37% full-quarter increase claim.
What the Data Shows
Monthly Chapter 11 Figures (YoY)
Sources: Epiq AACER (January), Epiq AACER (February)
With January up 76% and February up 67%, a blended Q1 increase of ~37% is arithmetically plausible only if March 2026 comes in significantly below March 2025’s 733 filings — which would be a notable reversal. More likely, the 37% figure is either a preliminary estimate, applies to a different subset (e.g., total commercial filings rather than just Chapter 11s), or the actual Q1 figure will land materially higher.
Important Caveats
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Related-case inflation: Both January and February spikes were partly driven by related filings from large corporate family cases — single large proceedings can generate dozens of court filings. Epiq noted this “outsized impact” explicitly for January.
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Subchapter V surge: Small business elections within Chapter 11 rose 68% in January and 91% in February, per ABI, signaling genuine SMB distress separate from large-case noise.
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Baseline context: Q1 2025 commercial Chapter 11s were actually down 7% from Q1 2024 (1,760 total), making the 2025 base relatively soft and inflating the 2026 YoY comparison.
Broader Distress Signals
The Chapter 11 surge sits within a broader filing acceleration: total bankruptcies in January and February 2026 were up 10% and 14% YoY respectively, consumer Chapter 7s are up ~15%, and ABI’s executive director cited “inflation, high interest rates, tightening credit and geopolitical headwinds” as persistent drivers.





