Consumer Credit Shows Momentum In 2026

TransUnion reports show continued lending growth with notable delinquency increases across most credit categories.

The consumer credit market is entering 2026 with cautious optimism, according to TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report and 2026 originations forecast.

TransUnion projects moderate growth in mortgage and unsecured personal loan originations as primary drivers of expansion. Mortgage originations are expected to grow 4.0% for purchases and 4.2% for refinances, extending a two-year rebound from historic lows. Unsecured personal loans are forecast to increase 11.2%, marking their third consecutive year of growth. Credit card originations are projected to rise modestly, while auto loan volumes may edge lower following 2025’s tariff-driven buying surge.

Jason Laky, TransUnion’s head of financial services, said that “consumer demand for credit remains strong across risk tiers and will likely strengthen further if interest rates fall more than expected in the coming quarters.”

Delinquency Trends

The report reveals some notable patterns for the accounts receivable management industry. The median VantageScore declined 2 points year-over-year to 711 in Q4 2025 — the first decline after years of stability. More consumers are drifting from mid-level risk tiers toward the highest and lowest tiers, reshaping portfolio dynamics.

Credit card delinquencies (90+ days past due) rose to 2.58%, while unsecured personal loan delinquencies (60+ DPD) climbed to 3.99% from 3.57% a year earlier — the largest year-over-year increase since early 2023. Mortgage delinquencies reached 1.58%, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of increases. Auto loan delinquencies hit 1.50%, with used vehicles driving much of the deterioration.

Credit Card Market Dynamics

Bankcard originations surged 11.7% year-over-year in Q3 2025, the strongest growth in three years, with total balances reaching 1.15 trillion. Notably, issuers are shifting toward below-prime accounts with lower initial credit limits to manage risk. The average new account credit line decreased to $5,587 from $5,702 the previous year, while the number of credit cards in circulation grew to 581 million.

Personal Loans Hit Record Levels

Unsecured personal loan originations reached a record 7.2 million in Q3 2025, with FinTech lenders capturing 42% of the market — up from roughly one-third a year earlier. Total balances climbed to $276 billion across 26.4 million consumers.

Despite rising delinquencies, newer loan vintages are performing better than older cohorts, particularly in the subprime segment, suggesting improved underwriting discipline.

What This Means for ACA Members

As delinquency rates normalize from pandemic-era lows, collection volumes are likely to increase. In fact, TransUnion’s latest survey notes that 64% of companies have reported increased account volumes over the past year.

The picture becomes more complicated when examining liquidation trends. While 39% of companies reported improved account liquidity over the past year, 28% experienced declining collectability. This reflects “ongoing challenges in portfolio composition, consumer payment capacity, account age and collectability,” according to the report.

“After several years marked by credit behaviors influenced by stubbornly high inflation and elevated interest rates, we may be seeing signs of a return to more traditional growth,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As these more typical patterns return, it’s more important than ever for lenders to leverage advanced tools, including trended data, to more accurately assess evolving risk profiles.”