German corporate bankruptcies to surge to a decade high in 2025

German corporate bankruptcies are expected to reach their highest level in more than a decade in 2025, with roughly 24–26 thousand insolvency cases forecast depending on the source. This reflects both a continuation of the sharp rise seen since 2023 and persistent structural weaknesses in Europe’s largest economy.​

Headline numbers

• Credit agency Creditreform projects about 23,900 corporate insolvencies in Germany in 2025, an increase of 8.3% from 2024 and the highest figure since 2014.​

• Other analyses, such as CRIF and Allianz-related forecasts, point to up to around 24,300–26,000 insolvencies, implying double‑digit growth versus 2024 in some scenarios.​

Drivers of the surge

Key reasons cited include:

• Two years of economic stagnation or contraction, high financing costs, and heavy debt burdens that leave many firms with little buffer.​

• Structural pressures such as high energy prices, weak global trade for an export‑oriented economy, and what business groups describe as heavy bureaucracy eroding competitiveness.​

Who is most affected

• Small and micro‑enterprises account for the vast majority of cases (over 80% of insolvencies in recent data), even if each case is relatively small in terms of jobs and losses.​

• Financial losses from corporate failures are still large: Creditreform estimates roughly 57 billion euros in creditor losses in 2025, with around 285,000 employees affected by insolvencies, only slightly below the prior year.​

Sector and regional patterns

• Studies highlight particularly strong increases in insolvencies in regions such as Lower Saxony, Baden‑Württemberg, and Berlin in 2024, with that elevated level expected to carry into 2025.​

• Retail and consumer‑facing sectors are under notable pressure, with several reports of a “wave” of shop and chain bankruptcies amid weak consumer spending.​

Outlook beyond 2025

• Some forecasts (e.g., Allianz Trade, CRIF) expect insolvencies to peak around 2025 and then ease slightly from 2026 as the adjustment runs its course and growth support measures take effect.​

• However, institutes such as ifo and IWH warn that as long as high costs, tight financing, and subdued demand persist, insolvency numbers are likely to remain elevated by historical standards even after the peak.​