Mortgage Delinquency Increases Linked To Rising Consumer Payment-To-Income Ratios

TransUnion reports a rise in mortgage delinquencies from 0.89% in Q2 2023 to 1.27% in Q2 2025, with nearly 57 million mortgage consumers analyzed. Payment-to-income ratios for credit cards rose throughout 2023, correlating with increased mortgage delinquency rates the following year. TransUnion emphasizes the predictive power of monitoring PTI trends across a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, enabling lenders to gain a 12-month advance warning before mortgage performance deteriorates.

Title: TransUnion Analysis Reveals Rising Mortgage Delinquencies and the Importance of Monitoring Payment-to-Income Ratios

CHICAGO, July 2, 2025 – TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) has released a comprehensive analysis revealing a significant correlation between rising payment-to-income (PTI) ratios and mortgage delinquency rates. The study shows that mortgage delinquencies have increased from 0.89% in Q2 2023 to 1.27% in Q2 2025. The analysis, examining nearly 57 million mortgage consumers, demonstrates that increases in non-mortgage debt obligations, particularly in credit cards, Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), and student loans, serve as early warning signs for potential mortgage defaults.

Credit card PTI ratios rose from 2.18% to 2.33% throughout 2023, correlating with increased mortgage delinquency rates in the following year. TransUnion recommends quarterly monitoring of consumer credit data to identify emerging risks before they manifest in traditional credit scores. TransUnion’s research links rising payment-to-income ratios with future mortgage delinquencies, signaling potential credit market deterioration despite currently manageable levels.

The data shows a compelling pattern: as credit card PTI ratios increased from 2.18% to 2.33% throughout 2023, mortgage delinquencies followed suit, rising from 0.42% to 0.63% in the corresponding months of 2024. This relationship held consistent across other credit products like HELOCs and student loans. What makes this finding particularly valuable is its predictive power. By tracking PTI trends across a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, lenders gain approximately 12 months of advance warning before mortgage performance deteriorates. This provides a significant window for intervention strategies.

For TransUnion, this research demonstrates the value proposition of their credit data services and portfolio management tools like TruVision. The company is positioning itself as an essential partner for lenders navigating increasingly complex credit risk environments. Their ability to identify these correlations showcases TransUnion’s sophisticated data analytics capabilities and supports their value as a critical financial infrastructure provider.

The gradually rising delinquency trend itself warrants attention, as it may signal broader consumer financial stress developing despite still-modest absolute levels. The research suggests lenders should implement quarterly monitoring of cross-wallet credit data to identify at-risk borrowers before traditional credit scores capture deterioration.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/transunion-analysis-finds-rise-consumer-120000299.html
[2] https://www.stocktitan.net/news/TRU/trans-union-analysis-finds-rise-in-consumer-payment-to-income-ratios-bru2121zyuts.html