Mortgage Delinquency Rates For People In America’s Lowest-Income Areas Haven’t Been This High Since 2016

Mortgage delinquencies in America’s lowest-income areas have surged to their highest level since 2016, even though overall mortgage delinquency nationwide is still close to long‑run norms.

What the headline is referring to

• New York Fed data show that by late 2025, the share of borrowers in the lowest‑income ZIP codes who are 90+ days late on their mortgages reached about 3%, up from roughly 0.5% in 2021.

• Researchers note this is the highest serious‑delinquency rate for these low‑income areas since 2016, marking a clear break from the unusually low levels seen during the pandemic relief period.

How this compares to the overall market

• Across all income groups, about 1.3% of mortgage balances became seriously delinquent during 2025, a rate similar to pre‑pandemic averages and far below the 2008 crisis period.

• The deterioration is therefore highly uneven: delinquencies are concentrated in lower‑income neighborhoods, while higher‑income areas still show historically low delinquency rates.

Why delinquencies are rising in low‑income areas

• The sharpest increases are in places where local unemployment has risen more than the national average and where home prices have started to fall.

• Counties with the steepest unemployment increases saw mortgage delinquency worsen by about 0.6 percentage points over the past year, indicating that job losses are a key driver of missed payments.

Geographic pattern

• Higher delinquency rates are most common in economically weaker regions, especially parts of the South and some East Coast areas that already had higher poverty and lower property values.

• West Coast states and many higher‑income metro areas still have relatively low rates of mortgages that are 30+ days or 90+ days delinquent.​

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