One Chart That Helps Explain Surging Auto Delinquencies

“One Chart That Helps Explain Surging Auto Delinquencies” is a Bloomberg Odd Lots newsletter piece (Dec. 22, 2025) that uses a single graphic to link today’s spike in missed car payments to how expensive cars and car financing have become relative to incomes.​

What the chart is about

• The chart juxtaposes measures of auto affordability (such as vehicle prices and monthly payments as a share of income) with the recent rise in auto loan delinquencies, illustrating that payments have outpaced what many households can reasonably handle.​

• It is meant to show that the delinquency problem is less about a sudden economic collapse and more about a slow squeeze from higher car prices, higher interest rates, insurance, and repair costs.​

Key data behind the story

• Auto loan delinquencies are at their highest in about 15 years, with balances 30+ days late around 3.9% in Q3 2025, roughly 1.5 times mid‑2021 levels.​

• A VantageScore analysis cited in Bloomberg finds serious auto delinquencies (60+ days past due) up about 50% from 2010 to early 2025, pushing auto loans from among the safest consumer debts to some of the riskiest.​

Why delinquencies are surging

• Average monthly car payments rose nearly 30% from about 2020 to 2023 (roughly from the high‑$400s to around $600), driven by elevated vehicle prices and higher interest rates, making ownership less affordable even before 2025.​

• On top of purchase and financing costs, consumers face higher insurance premiums and repair costs, which have hit lower‑income and subprime borrowers hardest and pushed their delinquency rates above pre‑pandemic and even financial‑crisis levels.​

What it implies

• The chart underscores that the stress is concentrated among lower‑credit or lower‑income borrowers, while higher‑income households continue to spend, so the issue looks like a distributional squeeze rather than a broad consumer collapse.​

• For lenders and investors, the message is that auto credit—especially subprime—is now significantly riskier than it was a decade ago, and trends suggest pressure could persist if car and financing costs stay elevated.​