Payment Volumes Facing Recession Fears

Payment volumes are still growing but are decelerating as consumer spending softens and recession risks remain elevated, especially in the U.S. The payments industry looks resilient versus the broader economy, yet investors are increasingly worried that weaker consumer activity and rising credit stress could pressure future volume growth.​

What is happening to payment volumes?

Global payments revenue and underlying transaction volumes continue to rise, but at a slower pace than in the immediate post‑pandemic rebound. Industry analyses show global payments revenue growth slowing to roughly mid‑single‑digits annually through the rest of the decade as macro conditions cool and higher rates fade as a tailwind.​

In the U.S., bank card data point to plateauing or slower growth in consumer spending, with non‑essential categories weakening while necessities remain more stable. This cooling in card‑driven spending is central to investor concerns about volume growth at card networks and acquirers.​

Why recession fears matter for volumes

Recession probabilities for 2025 have been marked down by some forecasters but remain non‑trivial, and several market and survey indicators are flashing slowdown risk. Consumer confidence indices are in or near “recession territory,” and softer sentiment tends to translate into more cautious spending and slower transaction growth.​

Rising credit stress adds to the risk: U.S. data show record shares of card users making only minimum payments and higher delinquency rates, signs that households are stretched. For networks like Visa, that combination of weaker consumers, rising delinquencies, and more U.S. states nearing recession is a key overhang on forward payment volume expectations.​

Resilience of the payments industry

Even with softer macro conditions, payments remains one of the most profitable and structurally growing parts of financial services. Global reports highlight that revenues still expand, driven by ongoing cash‑to‑digital migration, e‑commerce, and account‑to‑account and wallet‑based payments, even when economic growth is sub‑par.​

Regionally, growth is uneven: Latin America and parts of EMEA show stronger transaction and revenue expansion, while Asia‑Pacific has recently been weaker and North America is growing more modestly. This regional diversification, along with new payment methods, helps offset volume softness tied directly to any single country’s recession risk.​

Key drivers to watch

• Consumer spending trends in real terms (after inflation), especially on discretionary items where slowdowns hit volumes fastest.​

• Labor market and confidence data, since payment volumes track closely with employment and household sentiment.​

• Credit quality and leverage, because rising delinquencies and record revolving balances can eventually force sharper cutbacks in spending.​

• Structural growth levers such as digital wallets, real‑time payments, and ongoing shifts away from cash, which can keep volumes growing even through mild recessions.​

Snapshot: volumes vs. recession risk