Shoppers plan to cut Black Friday weekend spending this year, survey shows

Shoppers in 2025 are expected to reduce their spending over the Black Friday weekend, with recent surveys showing an average planned outlay of $622 per person, which is about 4% lower than last year. This marks the first time in four years that a decline in spending is anticipated for Black Friday events, largely driven by increased living costs and concerns about overall affordability.​

Key Trends for Black Friday 2025

• The majority of shoppers surveyed—regardless of income—are intending to cut back on discretionary purchases. Households earning less than $50,000 expect to spend 12% less, while those earning over $200,000 are planning an even sharper 18% reduction.​

• About 82% of consumers say they still plan to participate in Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, showing strong demand for deals despite tighter budgets.​

• Financial pressures such as the rising cost of living (cited by 69% of those reducing their budgets) and overall financial constraints (43%) are the main reasons for cutbacks.​

Shopper Behavior

• Many consumers are looking for additional ways to manage holiday expenditures, such as using credit cards or “buy now, pay later” services to spread out payments.​

• There is a shift in shopping channel preference, with physical store purchases expected to slightly rise, especially among younger shoppers, even as overall spending is down.​

Retail Environment

• Despite lower individual spending, overall holiday sales for November and December are forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time, although this represents slower growth compared to prior years.​

• Many shoppers are expected to focus on essential or lower-priced items, with less emphasis on big-ticket electronics and more on shoes, books, and kitchenware.​

These trends indicate that while participation in Black Friday weekend remains high, shoppers are more cautious with their spending, seeking greater value in response to economic pressures.

• Reduced Black Friday spending is expected to moderate the revenue growth rate for retailers during the 2025 holiday season. Although total U.S. retail sales for November and December are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, this growth—estimated between 3.7% and 4.2%—is slower than last year’s 4.8% increase, reflecting the cutbacks in consumer spending during key shopping events like Black Friday.​

  Industry and Retailer Impacts

  • Retailers such as Amazon and Walmart are still expected to see positive revenue growth, but much of this will be driven by higher prices or inflation rather than increased unit sales.​

  • Many retailers have responded by deepening discounts, extending promotional periods, and focusing on essential or lower-priced products to attract cautious shoppers.​

  • Online sales are still forecast to rise, with U.S. Black Friday e-commerce projected to grow by as much as 8.7% year-over-year.​

  Revenue Trends Table

  Year	Projected Holiday Sales Growth	Projected Total Sales (USD)
  2024	4.8%	$976.1 billion
  2025	3.7%–4.2%	$1.01–$1.02 trillion

  Overall, while retailers will enjoy record holiday revenues in 2025, the gains are more modest than previous years, and many companies must adjust strategies to account for more budget-conscious consumers.​