Texas attorney general Paxton, US Senator Cornyn headed to Republican runoff

March 3, 2026 5:50 pm
The exchange for the debt economy

Poll shows Cornyn losing to Paxton in Senate primary’Texas Republican primary for U.S. Senate is going to a May 26 runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither cleared 50% of the vote in a crowded field.

What happened

  • Cornyn finished first in the multi‑candidate primary but fell short of a majority, triggering a runoff under Texas law.

  • Paxton placed second, advancing to a one‑on‑one contest with Cornyn; Rep. Wesley Hunt and several minor candidates trailed far behind.

  • Major outlets are projecting the Cornyn–Paxton matchup as returns show both consolidating most of the Republican vote between them.

Why it matters

  • The race has become a proxy fight over the future direction of the GOP in Texas, pitting Cornyn’s long‑tenured, leadership‑backed conservatism against Paxton’s more confrontational, MAGA‑aligned brand.

  • National Republicans have poured tens of millions into supporting Cornyn, warning that Paxton’s extensive ethical and legal controversies could put an otherwise safe GOP Senate seat at risk in November.

  • Republican primary electorates in Texas tend to be more ideologically conservative, which could give Paxton a structural advantage in a lower‑turnout runoff even though Cornyn leads the initial vote count.

Key numbers snapshot

Candidate Status Approx. primary share Notes
John Cornyn In runoff (1st) Low‑mid 40% range Four‑term incumbent, heavy backing from GOP leadership and outside spenders
Ken Paxton In runoff (2nd) High‑30s to ~40% State AG, strong support from Trump‑aligned base, significant ethical baggage
Wesley Hunt Eliminated (3rd) Low‑teens Houston‑area congressman whose late entry helped force a runoff

Looking to the runoff

  • The runoff is scheduled for May 26, giving both campaigns nearly three months to intensify attacks and consolidate voters from the eliminated candidates.

  • Cornyn is expected to stress electability and the risk that Paxton could endanger GOP control of the seat, while Paxton will frame the race as a choice between an establishment insider and a fighter aligned with President Trump’s agenda.

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