US Auto Subprime Delinquency Increases To Over 6%

Serious delinquency (60+ DPD) on US auto is now heavily concentrated in subprime, running around the mid‑6% range versus well under 1% for prime, with overall auto 60+ DPD around the mid‑1% range.

Current serious delinquency levels

• Overall auto (all credit tiers): Recent TransUnion/Fitch‑based summaries put consumer‑level 60+ DPD auto delinquency near roughly 1.45–1.56% through most of 2025.

• Subprime auto (60+ DPD):

  • Fitch subprime auto ABS data shows 60+ DPD running roughly 5.5–6.8% through 2025, reaching about 6.8% in September before easing slightly in October.

  • Multiple summaries of Fitch/Reuters data cite subprime 60‑day delinquency at about 6.6–6.9%, a record high going back to the early 1990s.

• Prime auto (60+ DPD): Fitch data has prime 60‑day delinquencies around 0.37–0.6%, i.e., roughly one‑tenth of subprime levels and quite stable.

Put differently, serious delinquency risk is now an order of magnitude higher in subprime auto than in prime, even though both segments are operating in the same macro environment.

Trend versus pre‑pandemic

• Subprime:

  • Serious delinquencies have more than doubled versus 2021 trough levels; Fitch shows subprime 60+ DPD rising from roughly 2.6% in May 2021 to the mid‑6% range by late 2024–early 2026.

  • Commentators note current subprime 60+ DPD is at or above any point in the available 30‑year time series, exceeding prior peaks in the mid‑1990s.

• Prime:

  • Prime 60+ DPD has ticked up modestly but remains in a historically low band, roughly 0.3–0.6%, with little volatility.

• Overall auto:

  • Federal Reserve work and trade‑press summaries show overall auto delinquency at least 30 days past due near 3.9% in late 2025, the highest in about 15 years, but the stress is disproportionately tied to subprime.

An illustrative example: Fitch data cited in early‑2025 commentary had subprime 60+ DPD at about 6.56% versus 0.39% for prime, implying a roughly 17:1 gap in “serious” delinquency rates.

How lenders are reading it

• Concentrated risk: Banks, captives, and CUs report relatively benign delinquency, with the worst 60+ DPD levels among independent and deep‑subprime‑heavy lenders (low‑to‑mid 3% for their overall portfolios, much higher within just the subprime slice).

• Loss content: With 60+ DPD increasingly viewed as low‑cure, subprime lenders are tightening underwriting, shortening terms where they can, and leaning more on repossession and loss‑mitigation strategies as cure rates deteriorate at these delinquency levels.