US Mortgage Delinquencies Jump To Highest Level In Four Years

U.S. mortgage delinquencies have just spiked to about 3.85% of active loans in November 2025, the highest national rate in a little over four years, but much of this jump is tied to technical calendar and seasonal effects rather than a sudden collapse in borrower health. At the same time, there are growing signs of underlying stress—especially among more vulnerable FHA borrowers—as household budgets strain under high costs and a softer labor market.​

What the headline refers to

• ICE Mortgage Technology’s latest “First Look” report shows the national mortgage delinquency rate rose to 3.85% in November 2025, with about 2.3 million loans at least 30 days past due, the highest level in more than four years.​

• That represents an increase of roughly 13–15% from October and more than 11% from a year earlier, including about 609,000 borrowers who became newly delinquent in a single month, the largest inflow since May 2020.​

Why the spike happened

• Analysts attribute a large part of the November jump to calendar quirks: November 2025 ended on a Sunday, so many payments made on Nov. 30 did not post until Dec. 1 and were temporarily counted as delinquent, a pattern also seen in 2003, 2008, and 2014.​

• Seasonal factors also matter: delinquencies often rise late in the year as holiday spending and other obligations compete with housing payments, and this year’s move—though visually sharp—fits within the range seen in prior “Sunday-ending” Novembers.​

Underlying stress in the system

• Beyond the calendar noise, broader data show a slow upward trend: the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey put Q3 2025 delinquencies at 3.99%, up from earlier in the year and slightly above a year ago.​

• FHA loans are driving much of the deterioration, with seriously delinquent FHA rates climbing as borrowers face a softer labor market, rising taxes/insurance, and stretched affordability, while conventional and VA serious delinquencies remain relatively flat.​

How serious this is (big picture)

• Even at a four‑year high, today’s mortgage delinquency rate remains low by historical standards and far below levels seen during the 2008 housing crisis or the early pandemic shock.​

• However, other indicators—like rising early-stage delinquencies across credit products and higher 30‑day mortgage delinquency balances—suggest many households have limited financial cushions and are more vulnerable if the job market weakens further.​

What this could mean for homeowners and buyers

• For current homeowners, the data point to a modestly riskier environment, especially for lower‑equity or FHA borrowers; staying current on taxes, insurance, and other debts matters more as lenders and servicers watch performance numbers closely.​

• For potential buyers, the rise in delinquencies may eventually show up as slightly more distressed listings in certain markets, but there is no sign yet of a broad forced‑selling wave or a 2008‑style foreclosure surge.​