Visa and Mastercard report 4% growth in U.S. holiday retail sales

U.S. holiday retail sales are estimated to be up about 4% year over year this season, based on transaction data from Visa and Mastercard. This growth is solid but slightly slower than last year and is not adjusted for inflation.​

What the 4% figure means

• Visa’s data show U.S. retail spending (excluding autos, gasoline and restaurants) rose about 4.2% from Nov. 1 to Dec. 21, using a broad mix of card, cash and other payment activity.​

• Mastercard’s SpendingPulse measure, which includes retail plus food services, shows holiday sales up about 3.9% over the same period.​

• Together, these figures support headlines that U.S. holiday retail sales are running roughly 4%above last year on a nominal basis.​

What is driving the increase

• Electronics and technology items led category growth, with Visa reporting electronics sales up about 5.8% as consumers upgraded devices in the AI era.​

• Apparel and accessories also outperformed, with clothing up roughly 5.3–7.8% depending on the dataset, helped by colder weather and strong promotions.​

• Home‑related categories lagged, with home improvement spending slightly negative and furniture roughly flat, signaling a tilt toward gifts and gadgets over home projects.​

Online vs in‑store spending

• In‑store shopping still dominates, accounting for about 73% of holiday payment volume, while e‑commerce represents the remaining 27%.​

• Online spending is growing faster, with e‑commerce up around 7.8% year over year, boosted by early deals and the convenience of shopping from home.​

Consumer behavior signals

• Both networks note that shoppers started earlier and leaned heavily on discounts, reflecting caution amid inflation and tariff‑related price pressures.​

• Many consumers used AI tools to discover products and compare prices, a notable new factor helping them stretch discretionary budgets during the season.​