Visa, Mastercard earnings seen growing on the back of a resilient consumer

The consumer has long been the engine of U.S. economic growth, with consumer spending or spending on behalf of consumers making up about 70% of the economy. With that, Visa (NYSE:V) and Mastercard’s (NYSE:MA) earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, will show how confident consumers are.

There have already been reports of healthy spending in other companies’ earnings. Bank of America’s (BAC) Q2 earnings reflected a resilient consumer, “with healthy spending and asset quality,” Chairman and CEO Brian Moynihan said earlier this month. Indeed, among an uncertain backdrop of tariff wrangling, retail sales rose 0.6%M/M in June, following a 0.9% dip in May and a 0.1% slip in April.

Visa (NYSE:V) is scheduled to release Q3 earnings on after the close on Tuesday, and Mastercard (NYSE:MA) is set to announce Q2 results before the open on Thursday.

Visa’s (V) fiscal Q3 payment volume is expected to reach $3.59T, up 7.8% Y/Y, accelerating from the 6.7% growth rate in it Q2 2025. Mastercard’s (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume is projected to climb 9.3% Y/Y to $2.63T, a marked improvement from the 0.5% increase it saw in Q1.

Both would indicate faster growth than the 5% network volume increase that American Express (AXP) reported earlier this month. Bank of America (BAC) said consumers’ combined credit/debit spending increased 4% to $244B.

The consensus estimate for Visa (V) Q3 adjusted EPS is $2.85, up 18% from a year ago, and for revenue is $9.85B, up 11% Y/Y. Mastercard (MA) Q2 adjusted EPS is projected to be $4.02, up 12% Y/Y and revenue is expected to grow 14% to $7.98B.

Both payment network companies have an impressive record of beating the average analyst estimates. Mastercard’s (MA) adjusted EPS and revenue and Visa’s (V) adjusted EPS have exceeded the consensus estimates in each of the last 12 quarters.  Visa’s revenue has only missed once during the same time span.

Also, be on the watch for any changes in Visa’s (V) FY2025 guidance. Last quarter, it still expected EPS to grow in the low teens and net revenue to rise in the low double digits.

There has been much talk about whether stablecoins will threaten Visa and Mastercard’s dominance of the card payment space, but that’s not likely to hurt this quarter’s earnings. Both, though, are striking stablecoin partnerships to participate in the nascent technology.

SA Analyst Mike Zaccardi, who has a Buy rating on the stock, said Visa’s (V) continued EPS growth outlook supports its premium valuation and long-term investment case. Still, key risks include potential consumer spending softness in the second half of the year, crypto competition, and regulatory changes.

SA Analyst Lightning Rock Research, with a Strong Buy on V, also sees consumer spending trends continuing to support Visa’s (V) robust growth. Furthermore, its investments in stablecoin technology will help the company benefit from payment innovations, rather than be threatened by them.

In Mastercard’s (MA) earnings, SA Analyst Agar Capital will be looking for revenue dynamics from value-added services, any comments on the expansion of its USDG project, and the evolution of client incentives. Agar rates the stock a Buy, saying the company’s optionality in stablecoins, AI, and real-time payments is underappreciated.